Explanatory note in Hindu Editorial dated September 5 titled ‘Warning on Warming’
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Alarm bell rings as earth gets warmer
Angst mounts as global warming inches towards calamity
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‘Limiting Overshoot ’-the report prepared by the United Nations Environment Program has sounded a chilling warning. It says that if global warming exceeds the 1.5 degree upper limit, the Earth will face cataclysmic weather disturbances that would prove to be irreversible.
Quite a few countries of the world have, in the past few years, self-imposed restrictions on the emission of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. However, a majority of these countries have failed to curtail their greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to meet the goals set for them. As a result, they have defaulted on their promises. Hypothetically, if they proactively implement policies from now on to achieve their promised emission targets, the rise in Earth’s temperature will still touch 1.8 degrees instead of the globally accepted target of 1.5 degrees. On the other hand, if the countries continue their present strategies for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, the global temperature will rise to an alarming 2.6 degrees. That would spell disaster.
The Earth’s temperature rise has already crossed the upper permissible limit of 1.5 degrees. Consequently, the world now faces the deadliest ever El Niño effect caused by abnormal heating of the sea in central equatorial Pacific region. This threat may return again in 2027 to ravage the world again. Obviously, the looming El Nino threat has been triggered by the rise in global temperature above 1.5 degrees. The warnings of the climate scientists about such catastrophic consequences of global temperature rising above 1.5 degrees have proved correct. Sadly, the global community seems to have accepted such a heart-rending disaster as a fait accompli that has to be tolerated lying down. This is both an escapist and defeatist attitude.
The authors of the Limiting Overshoot report, however, are not totally pessimistic about the future. They say that if all countries of the world choose to abandon their laid-back attitude and fast-track their efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the temperature rise will not only be arrested, but also be reversed to the desired 1.5 degrees level by the end of this century.
The ground realities are quite depressing. There is a worldwide push for economic growth through vigorous industrialisation. Consequently, more greenhouse gases will be emitted resulting in the rise of global temperature. Thus, arresting the rise is practically very difficult. To reduce the temperature even by one tenth of a degree is, therefore, a daunting task. It will need mammoth sacrifice, and revolutionary policy changes on the part of all nations.
In recent times, climate scientists have shifted their emphasis away from Carbon Dioxide. considered the worst polluting gas to cause rise in environmental warning. They have focused their attention on Methane, which is a malor component of the greenhouse gas list. Methane contributes to nearly 0.5 degree of the environment’s temperature. The scientists now propose to curb methane emission from around the earth. This shift in emphasis will yield quicker results, argue the scientists.
Heeding this advice, 155 countries of the world have agreed to the terms of a new agreement, termed the Global Methane Pledge. It envisages that the countries will reduce their methane emission by 30% by 2030 from what it was in 2020. India is not a signatory of this agreement.
The terms of this Global Methane Pledge are a bit too rigid for development focused countries like India who feel their drive to industrialise would be hampered, if the stipulations of the Global Methane Pledge are complied with.
Heeding the international outcry, many countries have quite aggressively shifted away from thermal power generation that causes a lot of Carbon dioxide emission. But the fact remains that they need to generate more energy for their growing economies. They have large coal deposits. So, these countries argue that sticking to the terms of the Global Methane Pledge would be impossible for them.
Coal burning in thermal power plants releases huge quantities of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Trapping such Carbon Dioxide gas emission from thermal power plants is possible, but the technolfgy is both cumbersome and costly. Only countries like the U.S. have such expertise. India and other countries not agreeing to sign the Global Methane Pledge and other such agreements want liberal low-cost loans to be able to import such technology.
Turkiye (Turkey) will host the COP31 summit in November. Predictably, the meeting will be marred by discordant notes and acrimonious debates when the countries like India which have shied away from the Global Methane Pledge are taken to task. After the gargantuan flood in Nepal, international attention has returned to the issue of environmental temperature rise. Large emitting countries like the U.S. China, and India will be called upon to accelerate their emission control efforts.
The fact remains that India’s per capita emissions are well below those of countries like the U.S. Going back to the nineteenth century, one can see that Western industrialised countries had hastened global temperature rise during the Industrial Revolution Era. Now, countries like India are trying to catch up in the industrial field. So, it’s immoral to expect India and China to curtail their emissions, which would inevitably slow down their industrial growth. So, COP31 should try to reach a consensus on the next strategy for fighting off the looming dangers of climate change.
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